The project

Short description

This project aims at developing a physics-based tool to forecast scenarios for the location and time of a fissure eruption following magma propagation below the surface. Often magma avoids the central conduit and propagates through tortuous pathways, eventually opening a new fissure on the volcano flank or within a caldera. Similar old eruptive fissures are found in many areas now densely populated. The related hazard has so-far been estimated purely based on the spatial distribution of (...)

The Team

Main partners involved are:
– GFZ
Eleonora Rivalta (now at University of Bologna)
Lorenzo Mantiloni (PhD student funded by MagmaPropagator)
Prof. Torsten Dahm
– University of Potsdam
Gert Zöller
– ISTerre
Virginie Pinel
Séverine Furst (post-doc funded by MagmaPropagator)
Grace Bato (now at JPL)
Delphine Smittarello (now at European Center for geodynamics and seismology)
– INGV-Osserviatoro Vesuviano
Francesco Maccaferri

Funding

MagmaPropagator project is funded by ANR and DFG (call ANR-DFG NLE 2018).
This is the ANR-18-CE92-0037.

Objectives

This project aims at developing a physics-based tool to forecast scenarios for the location and time of a fissure eruption following magma propagation below the surface.
The outcomes of this project will be:
– 1) A better understanding of how the state of stress of volcanoes of different shapes evolve with time and how the edifice history controls the migration of surface volcanism
– 2) A long-term forecasting tool for the future distribution of
eruptive vents, useful for land (...)

Organization

MagmaPropagator is organized in 5 linked WorkPackages (WPs). Two theoretical work packages include numerical modelling (WP1) and in model-data fusion (WP2). Two work packages provides data, either from analogue as well as numerical models (WP3) or past eruptions at well-monitored target volcanoes (WP4) to be used to validate the approach and in case of real observations to improve our knowledge of the volcanic system. The development of the forecasting tools (WP5) will integrate progress (...)